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It’s hard to dispute that 2022 was a beast of a year. We jumped into January with a sense of optimism, fueled in part by the belief that the worst of the pandemic was over, frontier and growth markets were finding their feet and people who could really make a difference were finally taking climate change seriously.
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Then Russia invaded Ukraine and everything changed. Suddenly, coal-fired power stations were kinda popular again, nuclear power was somehow being presented as an eco-friendly, green technology (the power of branding!) the global food supply chain was instantly tangled and small emerging markets were facing crippling fuel and food costs.
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China’s renewed battle with Covid hasn’t exactly helped frontier markets, either, since many provide inputs that keep that country’s ailing manufacturing machine humming. And climate change twisted the knife, with floods, plagues of locusts and ferocious storms continuing to disproportionately affect small emerging markets.
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So in September, when I spoke with the environment minister of Ecuador, a country rich in natural assets yet poor in financial terms, I expected a pretty bleak assessment of the state of the world. Gustavo Manrique and I met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meetings in New York, where the annual Climate Week was also taking place and the readout I’d been getting was that little progress was being made, really on anything.
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But that was not what Manrique was seeing. “The war actually accelerated some things because we saw our dependence on fossil fuels,” he said. The pandemic, too, highlighted the damage humans were causing to the environment. “It accelerated our consciousness of the environment,” he said.
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The net result? “I’m optimistic,” Manrique said. “I see more countries with more commitments, signing or adding to high ambitions [to address] these things. Plus, the next generation is fully aware.”
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So if 2022 was about surprising resilience, perhaps 2023 will be about recovery and growth.
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For Frontier Markets News, growth will definitely be on the cards. We’re launching a bunch of new initiatives, including a weekly podcast highlighting some of the most interesting voices in the frontier and emerging markets.
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We’ll be publishing more guest posts, so if you have a viewpoint you want to share with our readers, let us know.
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Our weekly newsletter, which will be moving back to its longtime Saturday publishing schedule, will include a sharper focus on deals, people and, because it’s just so important, climate change and the efforts to tackle it.
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And we’ll be engaging more with our readers, too, starting on January 17th with a networking event in the heart of New York City.
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Engagement is a two-way street, of course, so, as always, we’d love to hear your feedback and ideas.
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In the meantime, we wish you all the best for a happy, fulfilling and joyful 2023.
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What we’re reading
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Nets, buoys, salt, ice. For West African fishermen, ‘everything’ is going up. (NY Times)
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More than 50 killed in ethnic fighting in South Sudan. (Sudan Tribune)
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South Sudan’s leader Kiir warns over power struggle. (Sudan Tribune)
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EU urges Rwanda to stop supporting M23 rebels in DR Congo. (AFP via Barrons)
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Apple to start making MacBooks in Vietnam by mid-2023. (FT)
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Vietnam 2022 GDP growth quickens to 8.02%, fastest since 1997. (Reuters)
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Sri Lanka farmers count the cost of government fertiliser ban. (FT)
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More repressive measures in pipeline as Taliban reverts to ‘old practices’ in Afghanistan. (Radio Free Europe)
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Israel’s newly reinstated envoy to Turkey presents credentials to Erdogan. (Times of Israel)
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Turkmenistan Builds New $1.5 Billion City, Far Removed From Grinding Poverty. (Radio Free Europe)
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Central Asia emerges gingerly from the shadow of Russia. (FT)
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Russia bans sales of oil to countries imposing price cap. (WSJ)
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Inflation in the Baltics: a warning for the rest of Europe. (FT)
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Poland looks to nuclear power to guarantee its energy independence. (FT)
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Albania backs scrapping visas for Chinese in snub to EU. (Balkaninsight)
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Kosovo closes border crossing as tensions with Serbia intensify. (FT)
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Croatia anticipates economic boost as it prepares to adopt euro. (FT)
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Venezuela moves closer to Mercosur and Argentina. (Mercopress)
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Spain appoints new ambassador to Venezuela amid thaw in relations. (Reuters)
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Bolivia protests: Opposition governor’s arrest stirs anger. (BBC)
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Repression prompts record numbers of Nicaraguans to flee to the US. (NY Times)
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Nicaragua cracks down on Catholic church. (FT)
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Chilean timber company leaves highly volatile Argentina. (Mercopress)
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Brasilia’s entire police force to deploy for Lula inauguration ceremony amid fears of violence. (France24)
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Eletrobras plays down risk of renationalization under new Brazilian government. (FT)
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Uruguay’s ambitions shake up Latin America’s Mercosur trade bloc. (FT)
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Brazil once again Argentina’s main trading partner. (Mercopress)
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