Welcome to the latest edition of Frontier Markets News. As always, I would love to hear from you at dan@frontiermarkets.co with news ideas, feedback and anything else you find interesting.
Sent this by a friend? Sign up here to receive FMN in your inbox every weekend.
By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler
Africa
Gabon to impose term limit on presidents
Gabon voters this week approved by a landslide a constitutional amendmentthat will limit presidents to two terms in future, DW reports. The amendment, proposed by the countryâs military rulers, also raises presidential terms from five to seven years and clarifies that family members cannot succeed a president.
A voter in Gabon casting her ballot. Photo: Goma/Xinhua
Last year the junta ousted President Ali Bongo, who took power after his fatherâs death in 2009. The Bongo family collectively ruled Gabon for more than a half-century.
The new constitution charts a course for a transition to civilian rule, but experts caution that it still leaves a loophole for the junta leader Brice Oligui Nguema to stay in office. He has not yet stated whether he will run for office in next Augustâs scheduled presidential election, the BBC reports.
The new constitution also will do away with the prime ministerial position but add two vice-presidential roles. Voter turnout for this weekâs referendum was estimated around 54%.
Namibia hopes oil discovery will boost economic growth
Recent discoveries of offshore oil and gas could double Namibiaâs annual GDPgrowth to 8% within a decade, the countryâs mining and energy minister, Tom Alweendo, told the FT. Increasing oil and gas production could provide a timely boost for its economy, which has struggled as prices for diamondsâa key exportâhave fallen.
The government is also hoping the prospect of faster growth will help it retain power in next weekâs general election. Dissatisfaction over inequality has festered in recent years, unemployment has risen to 20%, and support for the incumbent SWAPO party has dropped precipitously.
Namibiaâs mining and energy minister Tom Alweendo. Photo: Shelley Christians/Reuters
Alweendo wants to fast-track oil and gas developments to as early as 2027, hoping that this announcement can assuage some of the publicâs doubt in the SWAPO party. Analysts, however, say development is unlikely to happen that quickly and could be hindered by the fact that many potential investors are more interested in harnessing Namibiaâs massive potential for solar and wind growth.
Russia torpedoes USâs Sudan ceasefire resolution
Russia this week vetoed a UN Security Council resolution, spearheaded by the UK and Sierra Leone, calling for an immediate cease-fire in Sudanâs civil war and ensuring the delivery of humanitarian aid, Reuters reports. The move comes amid deep concern about Russiaâs role in the conflict: Russian paramilitary forces have reportedly supported the rebel RSF group, while the Sudanese army has cooperated with the Kremlin.
AU rejects Sudanâs appeal to restore membership (Sudan Tribune)
Sudanâs army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan rejected the proposed resolution, arguing it failed to address his countryâs core concerns.
People fleeing the violence in Sudanâs West Darfur region in August last year. Photo: Zohra Bensemra/Reuters
British foreign secretary David Lammy strongly criticized Russiaâs move, and the UK announced it would double its aid budget for Sudan as fears grow that the country is likely to suffer the worldâs worst famine in more than 40 years. The USenvoy to Sudan made his first trip to the country this week, meeting with Burhan and several other government, humanitarian and tribal leaders to call for more aid to flow into the country.
Asia
Pakistan bans mass gatherings
Pakistani officials prohibited gatherings of more than four people on Tuesday, five days before a planned march through the capital by supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan.
The ban will last two months, AP reports. Authorities said it was not possible to hold an event in the current security environment, with violent attacks having increased in frequency over the past several months. Gunmen killed at least three dozen people on Thursday in the mountainous northwest region of Kurram, the deadliest such attack in months, the New York Times reports.
Imran Khan with his wife Bushra Bibi at the Lahore High Court in July 2023. Photo: K.M. Chaudary/AP
Would-be marchers say the decision to ban their protest was politically motivated. Khan himself has been imprisoned for more than a year on charges his supporters say are dubious, and on Wednesday he won bail in a case of receiving improper gifts, Bloomberg reports, although he still faces more than 100 other charges.
Azerbaijanâs climate conference ends in disappointment
As the UNâs COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijanâs capital Baku drew to a close, officials released a draft climate finance deal that left most participants unhappy, Reuters reports.
The summit focused on determining a mechanism to get rich countries to help poor ones finance the costs of climate change. The draft arrangement would see wealthy states contribute $250 billion annually by 2035. Neither low- nor high-income countries were happy about the deal, with the former seeing the number as too low and the latter seeing it as too high.
Activists demonstrate against the draft deal for curbing climate change in Baku. Photo: Joshua A Bickel/AP
Economists said as the conference began that the world needs to dedicate $1 trillion annually toward climate finance. The draft agreement accepted that figure, setting a goal to spend $1.3 trillion a year by 2035, but specified that the majority of the money would come via new forms of finance such as additional taxes on fossil fuels, carbon trading and private sector investments in projects such as solar and windfarms.
Thailand rolls out handout program for seniors
Thailand is extending a cash handout program to include four million senior citizens, who will receive 10,000 baht ($288) each before the end of January, finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira announced this week.
The ruling Pheu Thai party campaigned during last yearâs election on a promise to provide handouts to all Thais over the age of 16, but the program has run into budgetary and logistical problems, Nikkei reports. The program has evolved into stimulus measures for vulnerable groups, which began in September with a disbursement to welfare recipients and the disabled.
The timing of the upcoming payout has raised questions for its proximity to local elections, with one former official calling it an âadvertisement for the government,â Bangkok Post reports. Supporters say handouts boost consumer spending, but critics view them as a populist ploy.
Middle East
China, Iran and Saudi Arabia hold summit reaffirming commitment to detente
Saudi Arabia hosted delegates from Iran and China in Riyadh this week for the second trilateral meeting on implementing the so-called Beijing Agreement intended to reduce friction between Iran and Saudi Arabia. In a statement, the organizers said the two countries agreed to resume religious pilgrimages and achieved alignment on seeking âan immediate end to Israeli aggressionâ inLebanon and Palestine.
Saudi deputy foreign minister Waleed bin Abdulkarim Elkhereiji (center) with vice foreign minister of China Deng Li and Iranâs deputy foreign minister Majid Takht Ravanchi. Photo: SPA
The statement also briefly touched on the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen, though the sparse language, with just one sentence calling for a political solution, suggests that the topic, and, more broadly, Iranâs sponsorship of the so-called âAxis of Resistance,â is not a major area of focus for the parties.
The main objective of the Beijing Agreement has been to commit both parties to a policy of mutual non-interference and reduce tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And while the now-year-long conflict between Israel and the Axis of Resistance threatens to blow up into a wider regional conflict, the agreementhas seemingly held due to both sidesâ focus on the importance of domestic economic development.
Iraqâs national census set to shake up political map
Iraq this week launched its first national census since 1987 in the hopes of developing a comprehensive picture of its ethnically and religiously diverse population, AP reports. Officials in Baghdad, addressing concerns from ethnic minorities about misreporting or undercounting that might affect their clout in Iraqâs sectarian political system, promised that researchers would be drawn âfrom all major ethnic groupsâ in order to ensure fairness.
Planning ministry officials working on the national census in Kirkuk. Photo: Ako Rasheed/Reuters
A 1997 census, run under the direction of then-dictator Saddam Hussein, specifically excluded the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, part of his political agenda of isolating and marginalizing the ethnic minorities who threatened his hold on power. The current census follows negotiations between Baghdad and the Kurdish population to ensure participation and equitable and accurate counting, although fears of marginalization and a reduction of their political power by the Kurds remain, Al Jazeera reports.
Oman wins IMF acclaim
The IMF this week lauded Oman for âproceeding decisivelyâ with its Vision 2040 reform program that has helped it lower inflation and improve its economic prospects. The multilateral said Omanâs privatization plan for state-owned firms, as well as an improvement in its fiscal surplus and current account balances, a credible currency rate pegged to the dollar, and âsustained reform momentumâ on the political front had helped drive a recent credit-rating upgrade.
Omanâs Vision 2040 plan involves an aggressive privatization schedule for its many state-owned companies, most of which are in the energy sector, contributing to an active IPO market in the region. Spinning off state energy companies and pivoting to public-private investments in tourism and locally-owned SMEs in the tech sector is part of a broader strategy by Oman to achieve a more ânormalâ consumer- and technology-driven economy with less state control.
Europe
Hungary turns to China to boost economy
Hungary is increasingly leaning on Chinese investment to support its struggling economy, with economy minister MĂĄrton Nagy positioning major investments from EV manufacturers BYD and CATL as crucial lifelines, the FT reports. The Hungarian government, grappling with a 0.7% GDP contraction and a budget deficit exceeding 4.5% of GDP, hopes the Chinese partnerships will offset a shortfall caused by the EUâs withholding of billions of euros in funding over rule-of-law concerns.
Hungaryâs government is also facing a challenge maintaining favorable relations with both Beijing and the incoming Trump administration. And, while Hungary has captured over a quarter of Chinese investment into Europe since 2022, questions persist about the long-term sustainability of prime minister Viktor OrbĂĄnâs effort to capture investment from both East and West, particularly as domestic political pressure builds ahead of parliamentary elections scheduled for 2026.
Hungaryâs prime minister Viktor OrbĂĄn. Photo: John Thys/AFP
Attracting more investment will be crucial to help upgrade the countryâs deteriorating infrastructure. Questions remain over where it will find funding for a planned âŹ10 billion rail network upgrade, with the only major rail developmentbeing a Chinese-funded Budapest-Belgrade line primarily serving Chinese cargo interests.
What Weâre Reading
ICC sentences former Mali police leader to 10 years for war crimes (Africanews)
Mali junta sacks prime minister over criticism on stalling civilian rule (BBC)
Troops from the SADC extendDRC mission for another year (Reuters)
Kenya cancels airport deal with Indiaâs Adani Group over U.S. case (Africanews)
Somalilandâs opposition leader won the presidential election (Al Jazeera)
Party of Senegalâs new leader sweeps legislative elections (Africanews)
Ghanaâs court to vote on anti-LGBTQ bill after December elections (Bloomberg)
Illegal mining threatens Ghanaâs economy as election looms (Semafor)
Ghana âblocks pension fundsâ from offshore investment (Reuters)
US business has CĂŽte dâIvoire, now Africaâs biggest wine importer, in its sights (The Africa Report)
Maliâs military junta ânets almost 250mn dollarsâ in payments from international mining companies (Wall Street Journal)
Mozambiqueâs political unrest raises credit risk (Fitch)
Zambia and Zimbabwe seek move to wind, solar to avert power shortages (Voice of America)
Mauritiusâ new prime minister announces audit of public finances (Reuters)
Bangladesh to formally request Hasinaâs extradition from India (The Guardian)
Bangladesh sets December deadlines for investigation into Hasina and her aides (Al Jazeera) Surprise solar boom in Pakistan helps millions, but harms grid (Bloomberg)
UK explores deals to create migration centers in Vietnam, Turkey, and Kurdistan (The Guardian)
Apple offers Indonesia $100mn to lift iPhone ban (WSJ)
Philippines signs new intelligence sharing deal with US (DefenseNews)
Peruâs state oil firm âcould open to private investors in 2025â (Reuters)
IDB approves $2bn in loans forArgentina(Mercopress)
We are committed to providing FMN readers with a free weekly digest of politically unbiased, succinct and clear news and information from frontier and small emerging markets.
Please consider becoming a paid supporter to help cover some of our costs and support our continued development of sharp markets-focused coverage and new informational products. Paid subscribers will also gain exclusive access to our quarterly EM/FM report that aggregates EM insights from 25 major banks, international institutions and consultancies.
