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Welcome to the latest edition of Frontier Markets News. As always, I would love to hear from you at dan@frontiermarkets.co with news ideas, feedback and anything else you find interesting.  

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By Ken Stibler, Noah Berman, Nojan Rostami and Mariel Ferragamo. Executive editor: Dan Keeler

Africa

Nigeria’s Dangote refinery increases purchases of imported oil

Industrialist Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion oil refinery, which began production late last year, is increasingly buying imported oil to supplement local supplies, Bloomberg reports. It has taken delivery of more than three million barrels of American crude since the start of the month.

• Nigeria strikes $200 million deal to power rural areas with renewable mini grids (Reuters)

Although the refinery is not yet operating at full capacity, the increased supply has helped push down fuel prices at the pump, forcing competitors to lower prices to levels that could strain their finances, the FT reports. Randy Hurburun, senior refinery analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, estimates Dangote’s plant processed an average of 380,000 barrels per day in January and February—well short of the full capacity of 650,000 barrels a day.

The Nigerian government is in talks with Dangote to extend a contract to sell it crude in the local currency, This Day Live reports. The state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) said it has supplied 48 million barrels since the agreement started in October.

Ghana’s government lays out plan to fix ‘troubled’ economy

Ghana’s new government this week laid out its plan to revive the country’s economy, proposing a budget that would sharply cut expenditure and raise revenues, MSN reports. Describing the economy as “in severe distress, burdened by debt repayment humps, mismanagement and a lack of accountability,” finance minister Cassiel Ato Forson said the impact on the country’s population from the spending cuts would be offset by scrapping levies on consumers.

• Rising seas and waves sweep away homes in Ghana (AP) 

Five taxes deemed “nuisance levies” by the current government—including a one-percent levy on mobile money transfers and a value-added tax on motor vehicle insurance—are being cancelled, France24 reports.

The West African nation’s President John Mahama, who has been in office for two months, has made it clear he wants to reduce Ghana’s debt burden, in part by improving tax revenue collection and by reducing the number of so-called ghost workers from government payrolls. Under the proposed budget, the country would switch from running a near 4% budget deficit to a 1.5% surplus, before debt servicing costs, Forson said.

Asia

Kazakhstan considers cutting oil output after exceeding OPEC+ quota

Kazakhstan will reduce its oil output after overproducing its quota from the OPEC+ bloc, the country’s energy ministry announced on Wednesday. Kazakhstan exceeded its OPEC+ allowance by 20% in February, Reuters reports.

The country’s strong oil production comes as the US attempts to peel Russia away from its deepening relationship with China through an arrangement that could bring Moscow back into the international fold. The impact of such a move could be felt most in global oil markets, with Russia, a major producer, having been largely shunned by the West since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. A revival of Russian oil sales could dent demand for oil from Kazakhstan, which sends70% of oil exports to Europe. 

Frontier oil producers will also have to contend with US President Donald Trump’s promise to “drill, baby, drill.” If America increases oil production, Kazakhstan could face even greater pressure from its OPEC+ peers to reduce production in the hopes of avoiding a supply glut in the global market.

Vietnam tightens ties across region—and with US

Vietnam upped its diplomatic and business ties with Indonesia this week as fear mounts that the country will be targeted by future US tariffs.

• Singapore to build two industrial parks in Vietnam (Nikkei)

On Monday, Vietnam elevated its relationship with Indonesia to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” its highest level of diplomatic engagement. The same day, Vietnamese electric vehicles champion VinFast announced plans to roll out up to 100,000 charging stations across Indonesia, Reuters reports.

Vietnamese officials on a visit to Washington also signed agreements with the US in the energy and minerals sectors valued at more than $4 billion, OilPrice reports. It appears unlikely this week’s moves will be sufficient to head off the tariff threat, however. “Vietnam needs to take stronger measures to further open its market and improve the trade balance between our two countries,” US Trade Representative Jamieson L. Greer said.

Sri Lanka wins IMF support

The head of the IMF promised additional support for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery last weekend in a conversation with the country’s president. 

“The economy has stabilized and is now performing well,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said. The fund provided Sri Lanka with a $2.9 billion bailout in 2023 after economic and political turmoil brought down its former president the year prior. Sri Lanka’s economy grew by more than 4% each quarter of last year after shrinking in 2022 and 2023. In its recently revealed budget, the country projected growth of 5% this year, SCMP reports.

Now that prospects are improving, foreign investors are beginning to return. Last Friday, Sri Lanka signed a deal with Japan to restructure $2.5 billion worth of loans. 

Middle East

US sanctions move on Iran squeezes Iraq

The US has revoked a longstanding sanctions waiver that permitted Iraq to import electricity from Iran, part of the Trump administration’s strategy of reimposing maximum pressure on Iran’s economy, Reuters reports. Initial reports that the waiver on gas imports was also revoked were denied by Baghdad, although the prime minister’s office confirmed the US has told Iraq to diversify its gas import sources.

• Iraq sets goal of building one million houses in 2 years to resolve housing shortage (AGBI)
• German investor group’s $1 billion arbitration claim against Iraq dropped during annulment proceedings (Iraq Business News)

Iran supplies 43% of Iraq’s natural gas imports, and some one-third to two-fifths of its total electricity supply, worth $4-5 billion per year. The US warning adds urgency to Iraqi efforts to lock in alternative supplies from, for example from Qatar and Oman, and speed up completion of already-planned import terminals and pipelines. 

The US move to limit Iran-Iraq economic relations follows the ramping up of restrictions on Iraqi banks’ dollar use and transactions with Iran 

Iran, China and Russia tighten alignment

China, Iran and Russia this week conducted joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman, signifying both the growing strategic importance of the region’s waters and the tightening ties between the three nations, Al Jazeera reports. Although the exercises were pre-planned, they followed Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamanei’s public rejection of potential talks with the US on Iran’s nuclear program.

• Yemen’s Houthis to resume Red Sea blockade, claiming they will limit attacks to only Israeli ships (Time of Israel)

The three countries’ foreign ministers this week also called for the US to end sanctions on Iran and consider reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action 2015, from which the first Trump administration withdrew. European parties to the JCPOA have not fully pulled out of the deal, but have recently increasedsanctions on Iran and changed their tone as international inspections demonstrate that Iran is continuing to grow its stockpile of enriched materials.

The Trump administration appears to be trying to weaken the ties between China and Russia, and encourage Russia to adopt a more neutral posture towards Iran. This week’s events suggest that the US effort has thus far been unsuccessful, and that Iran will, despite the maximum pressure strategy, likely continue to enjoy access to Moscow and Beijing as a sanctions evasion lifeline. 

Treaty opens door to more Saudi investment in Egypt

This week, Saudi Arabia and Egypt officially ratified a bilateral investment treaty (BIT), opening the door to more foreign direct investment (FDI) into Cairo’s beleaguered economy. BITs establish investor protections and other requirements that create a standardized legal framework for the parties’ private sectors to conduct business under.

In recent years, Riyadh has provided substantial financial support to Egypt, depositing billions directly into the central bank to prop up its currency and sovereign bonds in the form of foreign portfolio investments. In late 2024, Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered an “initial first stage” in FDI of $5 billion by the PIF, and announced plans to convert some $10 billion of central bank deposits into FDI as well. The recent BIT is intended to facilitate this FDI process.

Sectarian violence surges in Syria

This week in Syria saw the first coordinated attack by remnants of the former regime against the transitional government, sparking sectarian retaliation by government forces and affiliated groups on the largely pro-Assad Alawite community, France24 reports. It is the worst violence to rock Syria since the fall of the Assad regime last December, and left more than 1,000 people dead, most of whom were allegedly Alawite civilians.

The government did make significant progress this week in the country’s northeast, reaching an agreement with the US-backed, largely Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, which agreed to integrate its armed forces and participate in civilian government, according to the BBC. SDF forces hold territory that is home to most of Syria’s natural resource wealth.

Europe

New far-right leader cleared to run in Romanian presidential elections rerun

Far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leader George Simion has been cleared to run in Romania’s contentious presidential election rerun scheduled for May, electoral authorities announced Saturday, Politico reports. Simion steps in after ultranationalist frontrunner Călin Georgescu was disqualified and subsequently lost his appeal to the Constitutional Court.

Simion, whose party secured the second-largest share in last year’s general election, collected over 600,000 signatures nominating him to run—triple the required threshold—after initially withdrawing to support Georgescu. “We passed the [electoral bureau], now let’s see if we pass the [Constitutional Court] and return to democracy,” he wrote on Facebook, positioning himself as the defender of the “sovereignist movement.”

The electoral bureau simultaneously rejected another ultranationalist candidate, Diana Șoșoacă, who has vowed to appeal. Meanwhile, Simion’s far-right ally Anamaria Gavrilă has also entered the race, although they’ve agreed one will withdraw if both are cleared to run, creating a unified challenge to establishment candidates in this increasingly fractious contest stemming from November’s annulled election that authorities claim was influenced by a Russian campaign.

Latin America 

Noboa’s payment demand torpedoes Ecuador oil revival plan

Ecuador President Daniel Noboa’s strategy to rejuvenate the nation’s crucial Sacha oil field has collapsed amidst political controversy, Bloomberg reports. The planned deal with Sinopetrol, a consortium comprising subsidiaries of China’s Sinopec and Canada’s New Stratus Energy, faced mounting criticism from across the political spectrum, culminating in the resignation of finance minister Juan Carlos Vega and becoming a flashpoint in Ecuador’s presidential runoff election.

Amid mounting opposition and a tight re-election campaign, Noboa demandedan accelerated $1.5 billion payment deadline that effectively torpedoed the arrangement. The ultimatum, widely interpreted as a political maneuver to distance himself from the contentious agreement before Ecuador’s April 13 runoff election, has left the government without a viable operator for the critical asset.

The failed contract, which promised $1.7 billion in investment and a production increase to 100,000 barrels per day, represents a significant setback for Ecuador’s oil-dependent economy. Energy minister Ines Manzano acknowledged the government lacks the necessary funds and technology to boost production independently, leaving authorities scrambling to evaluate alternative development options for the field that produced 77,000 barrels daily last year and remains critical to Ecuador’s struggling economy.

Bolivia contends with deepening fuel shortages

Bolivian President Luis Arce Catacora unveiled a 10-point emergency plan on Wednesday to address the country’s worsening fuel crisis, including restricting government vehicle usage by 50%, prioritizing fuel for essential services, implementing continuous work hours, and reinforcing military control at borders to combat smuggling.  

The president firmly rejected claims that Bolivia is “bankrupt” and dismissed calls for his resignation amid a foreign currency shortage that has hampered fuel imports, Mercopress reports.

The crisis has hit the important agricultural state of Santa Cruz particularly hard, with diesel shortages prompting highway blockades by farmers and threats of indefinite strikes from transportation operators. Industry representatives report that current supplies meet only a fraction of Santa Cruz’s 3.3 million liters daily demand for diesel, and that public transport systems are operating at 35-50% capacity.

Hydrocarbons minister Alejandro Gallardo has attributed the supply disruption to foreign currency shortages limiting import capabilities and has offered to sell diesel at international prices to productive sectors. Agricultural leaders warn the increased costs would cascade through the supply chain, potentially raising food prices and threatening food security.

What We’re Reading

Uganda says it has deployed troops in South Sudan capital (Reuters)

DRC faces setback in mpox response after Rwanda-backed rebels advance (AP)

Cobalt price soars on supply fears after DRC export ban (Mining.com)

US gets ‘Congo fatigue’ as DRC’s political dysfunction threatens minerals deal (The Africa Report)

US swings behind TotalEnergies’ vast Mozambique gas project (FT)

Angola pushes ahead with key corridor: ‘With or without USAID, Lobito is happening’ (The Africa Report)

Ex-Credit Suisse boss to lead Côte d’Ivoire opposition coalition (Bloomberg)

Libya’s Mabruk oilfield restarts production after a decade offline (Oilprice.com) 

Over $13bn in solar, wind investment ‘at risk’ in Vietnam (Reuters)

Opinion: Cambodia regime ‘caught between China, US and underworld’ (TGP)

Myanmar residents take a shine to solar panels as temperatures rise (Nikkei)

Thailand aims for over 3% growth with $4.4 billion stimulus (Reuters)

Indonesia’s 30% tax revenue fall sparks fiscal concerns (Nikkei)

Bangladesh court orders seizure of Hasina’s real estate, bank accounts (Times of India)

In Bhutan, bitcoin reserves are already common currency (FT Lex)

What went wrong at Saudi Arabia’s futuristic metropolis in the desert (WSJ)

Kuwait oil profits set to surge in 2025/26 budget (Zawya)

Lebanon ‘needs $11bn’ for recovery and reconstruction (World Bank)

Macedonia’s PM accuses Bulgaria of interference (Novinite)

Russia imposes fees to stem flood of low-cost Chinese cars (FT)

Armenia and Azerbaijan agree to peace treaty after nearly four decades of war (CNN)

Petro says Colombia should buy Qatar gas to reduce import costs (Bloomberg)

Venezuela’s Maduro offers foreign oil companies a welcome (Miami Herald)

Opinion: Financial stress forces reform—and recovery—in many overlooked countries (FT)

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